所以女性看重什么，決定了男性的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)方向。如果看重禮物，男性追求者就會(huì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)賺錢。看重配偶育兒，男性就會(huì)學(xué)習(xí)顧家?guī)Ш⒆印？粗仡佒担行跃蜁?huì)開始保養(yǎng)和健身。看重知書達(dá)理，男性就著重飽讀詩書，修養(yǎng)品行。

女性看重什么，很大程度是由社會(huì)文化和性別意識(shí)所影響。 同時(shí)，女性自我意識(shí)的覺醒，主動(dòng)的選擇，會(huì)影響和引領(lǐng)男性的行為。著名演化生物學(xué)家和社會(huì)生物學(xué)家Robert Trivers說過，“男性跟男性之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)只是為了女性，所有其他方面的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)都是為了更好影響這個(gè)最終的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)”。

女性的選擇，會(huì)影響一個(gè)國家的未來和方向。

原文作者：Alexander Van Kemenade

China's problem of excess boys over girls is not new. The new problem is excess men over women.

中國男孩數(shù)量大于女孩的問題已經(jīng)不是新聞了。新的問題是成年男性多于成年女性。

China’s sex ratio imbalance at birth has been a well-documented phenomenon since sex-selective abortion took off as result of the one-child policy and the proliferation ultrasound devices in the 1990s. Yet disruption to society has thus far been limited since the imbalance has largely been confined to pre-marital generations (i.e. children and teenagers).

由于一孩政策和90年代超聲設(shè)備的普及，基于性別的選擇性流產(chǎn)造成中國出生性別比例的失衡。然而迄今為止，性別比例失衡對(duì)社會(huì)的破壞影響一直是有限的，因?yàn)檫@種不平衡在很大程度上被限制在了婚前一代(即兒童和青少年)。

Now that the sex-imbalanced generation is coming of age, its social effects will become more serious. A raft of studies suggests that the role of women in society may fundamentally change.

隨著性別失衡的一代人步入成年，其社會(huì)影響將變得更加嚴(yán)重。一系列的研究表明，女性的社會(huì)角色可能發(fā)生根本性的改變。

Sex ratios are a pretty fundamental force in shaping the behaviour of a population. When they go out of kilter, strange things tend to happen.

性別比例是塑造族群行為里相當(dāng)重要的基礎(chǔ)力量。當(dāng)比例不再平衡時(shí)，奇怪的事情就開始發(fā)生了。

In 2014, the male-to-female ratio for the prime marriage age in China (age 20-24) was 1.06. That will rise to nearly 1.2 in the coming five years. In the animal kingdom, a population of excess males typically results in intensified mating competition, which can lead to a variety of effects on physical appearance and social behaviour.

2014年，中國初婚年齡段(20-24之間)男女比例是1.06。在未來5年，這個(gè)比例將上升至接近1.2。在動(dòng)物王國里，雄性數(shù)量過剩通常會(huì)加劇交配競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，這可能會(huì)對(duì)外貌和社會(huì)行為產(chǎn)生各種各樣的影響。

Mating competition is generally regarded to lead to more pronounced sexual dimorphism, or differences in the appearance between males and females of a species.

交配競(jìng)爭(zhēng)通常被認(rèn)為會(huì)導(dǎo)致更明顯的性別二態(tài)性，或者是一個(gè)物種里雌雄兩性間外形的差異。

雌猩猩：“我老覺得，你一點(diǎn)兒也不珍惜我的付出。”

雄猩猩：“我。的。天。啊”

For example, studies on baboons have found that when the number of males exceeds females in a local population, males tend to get larger in body size as a result of mate selection——bigger males tend to win fights over females and get to reproduce, thus creating larger future generations. Dimorphism is also found in other characteristics, such as canine and testes size (for those species where sperm competition is important).

例如，有研究顯示，如果某地的雄性狒狒數(shù)量超過雌性，作為擇偶的結(jié)果，雄性的身形會(huì)變得更魁梧，因?yàn)樯硇胃蟮男坌阅軌蜈A得戰(zhàn)斗從而獲得雌性為其繁衍，并獲得更多的后代。在其他特征上也能發(fā)現(xiàn)二態(tài)性，例如犬牙和睪丸的大小(對(duì)于那些精子競(jìng)爭(zhēng)很重要的物種來說)。

In addition to changes in physique, changes in the sex ratio also affect reproductive strategies.

除了體形的變化之外，性別比例的變化也會(huì)引起繁衍策略的改變。

For instance, when male-male competition is fierce, males are known to invest more effort in raising their offspring rather than in trying to find additional mates. In species that live in alpha male-dominated groups (such as gorillas), mating competition can also increase the risk of infanticide by a non-resident male, leading females to enter into heat and reducing future competition.

例如，當(dāng)男性與男性的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)越來越激烈，男性會(huì)花更多的精力養(yǎng)育自己的后代，而不是去尋找其他的配偶。生活在男性占主導(dǎo)地位的群體中(如大猩猩)，交配競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也能增加非本群體的雄性殺嬰的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，導(dǎo)致雌性發(fā)情并且降低未來的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

Do humans, pose any fundamental exception to this observation? In most human societies, brute strength is no longer the key determinant of success in mating competition. Instead, one of the main arenas for mating competition is in the economic realm. And economic behaviour has been shown to change as a result of gender imbalances.

對(duì)于動(dòng)物界這一現(xiàn)象人類有不同的表現(xiàn)嗎?在大多數(shù)人類社會(huì)，蠻力不再是交配競(jìng)爭(zhēng)成功的決定因素。相反，交配競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的主戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)之一是經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)性別比例失衡會(huì)引起經(jīng)濟(jì)行為的變化。

Consider for instance the impact of sex ratios on the female's decision to remain in the labour force.

例如，性別比對(duì)女性留在勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)行為的影響。

A study by Joshua Angrist, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, of immigrant communities in the United States showed that increases in the local sex ratio reduced female labour supply. Women were more likely to exit the labour force after marriage given the increased ease with which one could find a husband.

麻省理工大學(xué)(MIT)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Joshua Angrist 在研究美國移民社群的問題時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)，一個(gè)地區(qū)性別比的提高降低了當(dāng)?shù)嘏缘膭趧?dòng)供給。由于女性尋找丈夫的概率提高，女性更有可能在結(jié)婚后離開勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)。

Sex ratios can also affect household saving behaviour.

性別比也會(huì)影響家庭儲(chǔ)蓄行為。

Wei Shangjin (now Chief Economist at the Asian Development Bank) and Zhang Xiaobo (professor at Peking University) concluded that roughly half of the substantial increase in China's household saving rate was attributable to the rise in sex ratios. Interestingly, the main subjects of the study were not the future grooms but their parents, who increased saving in order to improve their sons' attractiveness in the marriage market by purchasing housing and other signals of eligibility.

魏尚進(jìn)(現(xiàn)任亞洲開發(fā)銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家)和張曉波(北京大學(xué)教授)發(fā)現(xiàn)中國將近半數(shù)家庭儲(chǔ)蓄率的提高可以歸因?yàn)樾詣e比的提高。有意思的是，這篇文章的研究主體并不是未來的新郎，而是他們的父母。父母增加儲(chǔ)蓄是為了買房子，從而提高兒子在婚姻市場(chǎng)的吸引力。

Does an increase in the sex ratio always result in males saving more?

是否性別比上升總會(huì)導(dǎo)致男性儲(chǔ)蓄更多?

A study by psychologists on US cities suggests otherwise. Vladas Griskevicius (University of Minnesota) and his co-authors conclude that higher sex ratios actually reduced saving in the short term since more intense male-male competition lead to men buying things more impulsively in an effort to impress their prospective mates.

一項(xiàng)關(guān)于美國城市的心理學(xué)研究表明不盡其然。Vladas Griskevicius(明尼蘇達(dá)大學(xué))和他的合作者發(fā)現(xiàn)由于高性別比使得男性與男性的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)更加激烈。因?yàn)槟行詴?huì)通過更加沖動(dòng)的消費(fèi)來給未來伴侶留下印象，所以高性別比實(shí)際上降低了短期儲(chǔ)蓄。

Does this contradict the results in the China study? Not necessarily.

這項(xiàng)研究結(jié)果是否與中國的研究結(jié)果相矛盾呢?未必。

Higher sex ratios intensify male-male mating competition, but the nature of competition and mating tactics can vary across societies, depending on what the opposite sex find desirable. It may well be the case that in Chinese society, thriftiness and long-term financial stability are prized more by women than gifts and short-term material gain.

高性別比使得男性-男性競(jìng)爭(zhēng)更加激烈，但是不同社會(huì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的類型和尋找伴侶的策略都有差異，取決于女性認(rèn)為什么更重要。也許恰好在中國，節(jié)約以及長(zhǎng)期的財(cái)務(wù)穩(wěn)定比禮物以及短期物質(zhì)利益更被女性看重。

Entrepreneurship and hard work? Check.

創(chuàng)業(yè)和努力工作?是的。

In a different study, the same Wei and Zhang observe that private businesses were more likely to emerge in regions with a higher gender imbalance. Further, they find that son-only households were more likely to have started their own business than daughter-only households, and that this effect was more pronounced in counties with a more skewed sex ratio. They also show that households with a son in regions with a high sex ratio are willing to work longer hours and accept more unpleasant jobs.

魏尚進(jìn)和張曉波在另一項(xiàng)研究中發(fā)現(xiàn)在性別失衡更嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)民營企業(yè)更有可能出現(xiàn)。此外，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)只有兒子的家庭比只有女兒的家庭更有可能創(chuàng)業(yè)，并且這一效應(yīng)在性別失衡更嚴(yán)重的縣級(jí)地區(qū)更明顯。他們也發(fā)現(xiàn)性別比更高的地區(qū)有兒子的家庭工作意愿工作時(shí)間更長(zhǎng)以及更愿意接受條件更差的工作。

2014年中國分年齡段性別比

橫軸：每一位男性對(duì)應(yīng)女性數(shù)量

縱軸：年齡段

數(shù)據(jù)來源：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人智庫

The impact of rising sex ratios is thus real and policymakers should have potential unforeseen consequences on their radar. The question remains as to how these future developments will affect gender relations and women's welfare in Chinese society. The answer is far from straightforward.

所以性別比例上升的影響是實(shí)實(shí)在在的，政策制定者們應(yīng)該提前考慮很難預(yù)知的各類問題。需要關(guān)注的是這些未來的各種可能發(fā)展將如何影響兩性之間的關(guān)系以及中國社會(huì)中女性的福利。答案并非一目了然。

According to most standard measures of gender equality such as labour participation rates and wage equality, the situation for women will worsen. If the evidence provided by these studies is instructive, financial power will be more concentrated in the hands of men as intensified marriage competition forces them to work harder and save more. Women will become increasingly financially dependent on their husbands.

根據(jù)大多衡量性別平等的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)指標(biāo)，例如勞動(dòng)參與率和同工同酬，女性將面臨的狀況可能會(huì)惡化。如果以上的研究提到的證據(jù)有指導(dǎo)作用的話，婚姻市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇將導(dǎo)致男性工作更努力，存錢更積極，同時(shí)財(cái)政大權(quán)會(huì)更多的集中在男性手中。與此同時(shí)，女性在財(cái)政上會(huì)變得更加依賴她們的丈夫。

At the same time, these developments have as their ultimate cause the increased bargaining position of women vis-a-vis men, dictated by the laws of demand and supply.

與此同時(shí)，根據(jù)供需原則，性別比例的失調(diào)會(huì)導(dǎo)致雙方在婚姻市場(chǎng)的議價(jià)能力發(fā)生變化。

While the economic gap between men and women may get wider, family dynamics may improve. A number of studieson both humans and non-humans have found that increased mating competition among males leads to greater paternal investment (men becoming better fathers), as well as increased marriage rates. Perhaps the outcome will be a Chinese woman who does not work yet commands greater authority in a relationship.

雖然男性跟女性在經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的差距擴(kuò)大，家庭的動(dòng)態(tài)可能會(huì)改善。有文獻(xiàn)指出，不光是針對(duì)人類也有針對(duì)非人類的研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)婚姻市場(chǎng)上的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)會(huì)導(dǎo)致男性提高對(duì)下一代的投資(變成更好的父親)，以及提高的結(jié)婚率。也許接下來發(fā)生的會(huì)是一位不工作的女性在兩性關(guān)系中要求更高的話語權(quán)。

Moreover, nature has a way of restoring things balance to things. Female animal species have been observed to adopt counter-strategies to deal with heightened male aggression and competitiveness. In the case of the infanticidal gorilla, a commonly-seen response is for the female to begin mating with multiple males so as to confuse the offending male as to which offspring is actually his own.

大自然總會(huì)重歸萬物于平衡。雌性動(dòng)物會(huì)針對(duì)雄性更有進(jìn)攻性和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性的特點(diǎn)采取相應(yīng)的對(duì)抗策略。對(duì)于大猩猩種群中存在的謀殺幼崽的行為，雌猩猩通常的響應(yīng)是開始跟很多不同的雄猩猩交配從而使想要冒犯的雄猩猩分不清楚哪個(gè)幼崽是他自己的。

There is also increasing evidencethat females manipulate the sex ratio of their offspring to maximise their chances at having grandchildren. Too many males means there is a chance that a son will not get to reproduce. Thus, a female is a safer bet.

越來越多的證據(jù)也表明，雌猩猩會(huì)操縱下一代的性別比例來最大程度增加延續(xù)后代的概率。太多的下一代雄性意味著有的雄性可能無法繼續(xù)繁殖，此時(shí)生一個(gè)雌性會(huì)是更為穩(wěn)妥的選擇。

Throughout history, most recorded instances of large sex ratio imbalances have involved a surplus of females as a result of war. China's case is thus unprecedented, it is hard to predict how things will pan out over the longer term.

多數(shù)載入史冊(cè)的大規(guī)模性別失衡是由于戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)導(dǎo)致的女性剩余。中國男性剩余的現(xiàn)狀并無經(jīng)驗(yàn)可循，很難預(yù)測(cè)長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。

The abolition of the one-child policy, one of the main causes of sex-selective abortion in China, means that the sex ratio imbalance may well be a blip in history. Whether--and to what extent--the damage has already been done is, perhaps, a question for the baboons.

之前的一孩政策是中國大量基于性別的選擇性流產(chǎn)主要原因之一，隨著此項(xiàng)政策的取消，性別失衡可能在歷史場(chǎng)合中只是滄海一粟。是否--并且何種程度——損害已經(jīng)形成并無法逆轉(zhuǎn)，也許是只有狒狒才知道的問題。